Highlights
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Clay related subsidence is the process by which soils shrink or swell, producing downward settling, or upwards heaving respectively.1
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Summers will get hotter and dryer, and winters wetter throughout the century.6 This combination will produce perfect conditions for both the shrink and swell mechanisms of subsidence.
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As the climate warms subsidence will continue as the UK’s most expensive ground hazard, and likely increase in cost and scale.
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Subsidence in the UK has traditionally been a hazard that has been confined largely to the most vulnerable areas in the SE. Risk is projected to increase, with the issue creeping northwards, and likewise expanding and intensifying its range in the south.
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There will be an increase of 555,575 properties at a high exposure of soil subsidence under a high emission scenario from present day to the 2080s.
Environmental and Climatic Controls
Impact of Climate Change on Soil Subsidence
The video to the left demonstrates the impact soil type has on soil subsidence susceptibility. Soils composed of a higher percentage of clay particles are more susceptible to soil subsidence. This is due to the clay soils having a large capacity to store water compared to other soil types such as sandy soils. As soils lose moisture in warmer conditions the clay soils have a larger volume to loose. This is what causes the shrinking of the soil type one that can be seen in the video.
Soil types (left to right):
1. Clay Loam 2. Sand Loam 3. Sand
Where in the UK is Most Affected by Soil Subsidence?
Subsidence overview
Amount of properties at risk per county
Top left illustrates subsidence claims in thousands through time. Top right describes the average cost of a single claim through time. Bottom left plots the national total domestic cost of subsidence through time. Bottom right illustrates the number of properties at risk through temporal and RCP scenarios. Sources: ABI7 and NGRM9.
How Many Properties by 2050/2080s Will be Exposed to Soil Subsidence Under a High Emission Scenario?
There will be an increase of 555,575 properties at a high exposure of soil subsidence under a high emission scenario from present day to the 2080s.
(Statistics derived from Dye & Durham's Wind Modelling, data source UKCP18 data).
